Connection risk
A tight connection is not one number. It is the time you have, the time the transfer needs, and the gap between them — and knowing which of the three is the problem is what tells you what to do about it.
The three quantities
Available time runs from the estimated gate-in of the arriving flight to the gate-close of the next one, not to its published departure time. Required time is what the transfer itself needs. Slack is what is left. Negative slack means the connection does not work as scheduled.
Connection on one protected itinerary
One protected itineraryDM2 Demo Hub
DemoUpdated 4 minutes ago from Demonstration fixture.Demo data — not a live flight.
These segments appear to be on one protected itinerary. Confirm this on your ticket.
44 of 51 minutesWatch
Heuristic risk bandThis is a heuristic band, not a model output. No calibrated model is deployed, so DelayPilot shows the band and the factors behind it and no probability.
- On track
- WatchCurrent band
- At risk
- Disrupted
- Estimated gate-in
- 18:49Airport and time zoneDM2Eastern Daylight TimeAmerica/New_YorkEstimated
- Estimated gate-close
- 19:40Airport and time zoneDM2Eastern Daylight TimeAmerica/New_YorkEstimatedBuffer estimate, not an airline rule
- Available time
- 51 minutes
- Required transfer time
- 44 minutes
- Slack
- 7 minutes of slack
| Transfer step | Minutes | How this was derived |
|---|---|---|
| Leave the aircraft | 12 minutes | Estimated |
| Walk between gates | 14 minutes | Airport-derived |
| Security re-screening | 8 minutes | Airport-derived |
| Border control | Not required on this transfer | Airport-derived |
| Reclaim and recheck a bag | Not required on this transfer | Policy-derived |
| Mobility assistance | Not required on this transfer | Policy-derived |
| Uncertainty buffer | 10 minutes | Estimated |
Assumptions
- The onward flight has since been canceled. The figures below describe the transfer as it was assessed before that.
- The inbound flight arrives at the estimated gate-in time shown above.
- The transfer stays inside the same terminal and does not cross a border control.
- The checked bag travels through on the single reservation and is not reclaimed.
What we do not know
- The gate has not been published yet.
- The airline's published gate-close rule for this flight is not known, so the figure above is a buffer estimate.
- The disruption cause has not been verified.
Walking, security, immigration, baggage, gate-close rules, and airline assistance can change the outcome.
What the transfer is made of
Deplaning, walking the distance between the gates, any terminal change, security or immigration where the route crosses a border control, bag recheck on separate tickets, and the gate-close margin at the far end. Each component is shown with how it was derived.
One ticket or two
On a single protected itinerary, passenger-rights rules usually treat the journey as one, so a missed connection is usually assessed against the journey you booked rather than against the leg that broke. On separate tickets, rebooking and baggage recovery are usually yours, and those rules usually treat the two flights as two journeys. DelayPilot asks which it is, because everything downstream depends on the answer.
Connection on separate tickets
Separate ticketsDM2 Demo Hub
DemoUpdated 4 minutes ago from Demonstration fixture.Demo data — not a live flight.
Separate tickets usually leave rebooking and baggage recovery to you. Build in more time and verify each airline's rules.
69 of 51 minutesAt risk
Heuristic risk bandThis is a heuristic band, not a model output. No calibrated model is deployed, so DelayPilot shows the band and the factors behind it and no probability.
- On track
- Watch
- At riskCurrent band
- Disrupted
- Estimated gate-in
- 18:49Airport and time zoneDM2Eastern Daylight TimeAmerica/New_YorkEstimated
- Estimated gate-close
- 19:40Airport and time zoneDM2Eastern Daylight TimeAmerica/New_YorkEstimatedBuffer estimate, not an airline rule
- Available time
- 51 minutes
- Required transfer time
- 69 minutes
- Slack
- 18 minutes short
| Transfer step | Minutes | How this was derived |
|---|---|---|
| Leave the aircraft | 12 minutes | Estimated |
| Walk between gates | 14 minutes | Airport-derived |
| Security re-screening | 8 minutes | Airport-derived |
| Border control | Not required on this transfer | Airport-derived |
| Reclaim and recheck a bag | 25 minutes | Policy-derived |
| Mobility assistance | Not required on this transfer | Policy-derived |
| Uncertainty buffer | 10 minutes | Estimated |
Assumptions
- The inbound flight arrives at the estimated gate-in time shown above.
- The bag is reclaimed at the belt and rechecked at the second airline's desk.
- The two tickets are assessed as separate journeys, so nothing here assumes the second airline will re-accommodate you.
What we do not know
- The gate has not been published yet.
- The second airline's check-in cutoff for this flight is not known.
- The disruption cause has not been verified.
Walking, security, immigration, baggage, gate-close rules, and airline assistance can change the outcome.
Connection when the reservation is unknown
Reservation unknownDM2 Demo Hub
DemoUpdated 4 minutes ago from Demonstration fixture.Demo data — not a live flight.
Tell us whether both flights are on one reservation. That changes the connection and passenger-rights analysis.
Slack unknownUnknown
Heuristic risk bandThis is a heuristic band, not a model output. No calibrated model is deployed, so DelayPilot shows the band and the factors behind it and no probability.
- On track
- Watch
- At risk
- Disrupted
- UnknownCurrent band
- Estimated gate-in
- 18:49Airport and time zoneDM2Eastern Daylight TimeAmerica/New_YorkEstimated
- Estimated gate-close
- No estimated time has been published for this segment.Buffer estimate, not an airline rule
- Available time
- There is not enough information to assess this connection.
- Required transfer time
- There is not enough information to assess this connection.
- Slack
- There is not enough information to assess this connection.
| Transfer step | Minutes | How this was derived |
|---|---|---|
| Leave the aircraft | 12 minutes | Estimated |
| Walk between gates | There is not enough information to assess this connection. | Airport-derived |
| Security re-screening | There is not enough information to assess this connection. | Airport-derived |
| Border control | Not required on this transfer | Airport-derived |
| Reclaim and recheck a bag | Not required on this transfer | Policy-derived |
| Mobility assistance | Not required on this transfer | Policy-derived |
| Uncertainty buffer | 10 minutes | Estimated |
Assumptions
- Nothing has been assumed: the reservation structure is not known.
What we do not know
- Whether both flights sit on one reservation is unknown.
- The gate has not been published yet.
Walking, security, immigration, baggage, gate-close rules, and airline assistance can change the outcome.
Why there is no dial
A needle on an arc implies a precision the inputs do not have. The connection meter is linear, it reads out in words as well as in color, and it publishes no percentage in any channel.