Delay risk
DelayPilot does not tell you a number. It tells you which band an itinerary is in, what put it there, and how fresh the information behind that judgment is.
Why a band and not a percentage
A percentage implies a calibrated model standing behind it. None is deployed. Publishing a figure anyway would give a traveler a precision that does not exist, at the exact moment they are deciding whether to buy another ticket. So the output is a band, labeled as a heuristic band, with the reasoning shown.
Heuristic risk bandNo calibrated model is deployed, so no probability is available for this assessment.
What feeds the band
The current status and its freshness, the inbound aircraft where it is known, published airspace programs, observed operating conditions at both airports, and the time of day and the position in the aircraft rotation. Each factor is listed beside the band with how it was derived.
Risk band
- On track
No major disruption signal is visible right now.
- Watch
Conditions are changing. Review the factors and keep alerts on.
- At risk
Your itinerary has less room for recovery. Here are the most useful steps now.
- Disrupted
A material disruption is confirmed. Start with the action checklist below.
- Unknown
We do not have enough fresh information to make a reliable assessment.
Risk bandWatch
Heuristic risk bandThis is a heuristic band, not a model output. No calibrated model is deployed, so DelayPilot shows the band and the factors behind it and no probability.
- On track
- WatchCurrent band
- At risk
- Disrupted
This is an estimate, not an airline decision or safety forecast.
What would change this
A calibrated model, validated against held-out data and published with its error, would replace the band with a probability — and would arrive with its version, its calibration date, and its limits attached. Until that exists, the band is the honest output.
Weather is context, never cause
Conditions near an airport describe what operations are dealing with. They do not prove that any particular disruption was outside an airline's control, and DelayPilot never presents them as if they did.
A reason given by an airline or a provider is what was said, not what was established. Conditions observed near an airport are context and never proof of cause.